Who Will Win Delhi Elections – AAP Or BJP? Decoding The 5 Factors That May Decide The Winner

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Last Updated:February 03, 2025, 07:00 IST

If the jhuggi voters and Muslims remain fully behind the AAP, it could win big with 50+ seats. But if there is a split in the jhuggi voters, and the middle class consolidates behind the BJP, there could be a repeat of Haryana and Maharashtra...Read More

It is an AAP vs BJP battle in Delhi. (PTI File)

The Delhi elections began with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the pole position to gain power yet again. But has something changed as we enter the last lap before the voting on February 5?

DALIT VOTES

For over a decade, the poor in Delhi’s jhuggis and clusters have sworn by AAP. With free power and free water, this is a constituency that AAP has nurtured and has been its trump card in the elections. But this time, ground feedback suggests the situation may not be perfect for the AAP as the BJP has made some inroads among the poor in the jhuggis.

An extensive campaign, the promise of a pucca house to everyone in the jhuggis, and the promise to continue free water and power, is what is giving BJP a look-in here. The BJP strongly feels that there will be a split in the 20% Dalit vote this time, which primarily lives in the jhuggis, and this will hurt the AAP badly.

The BJP says the Dalit vote returned to its fold in Haryana and Maharashtra too. Many in the jhuggis told us that the condition of the slums has not changed under the AAP government. The AAP’s internal feedback, however, is that the poor are still behind the party, and this will propel it beyond 50 seats in these elections. Overall, the AAP and BJP are in a neck-and-neck battle here.

MUSLIM VOTES

The second big factor in Delhi is the 13% Muslim vote, and at least nine seats in Delhi where Muslim voters are pre-dominant. For over a decade now, the Muslims have consolidated in Delhi behind the AAP, bringing the party big victories.

The BJP was hoping that if the Congress contested these elections aggressively, it would split the Muslim vote as Muslims nation-wide see Rahul Gandhi as their leader. But the chances of that seem slim as the Congress election campaign has been lacklustre and regional parties such as Samajwadi Party (SP) have campaigned for the AAP in Delhi’s Muslim areas. Muslims realise that voting for the Congress in a Delhi election may be counter-productive for them.

The BJP’s chances in Delhi would have greatly improved if the Muslim votes had split between the AAP, Congress and Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM. But the AAP feels it won’t happen. Overall, this is an advantage for the AAP.

MIDDLE-CLASS VOTERS

Then is the elephant in the room – Delhi’s middle class, which is 40% of the voters. Traditionally, this vote bank has largely split between the BJP and AAP, but this time on the ground, the feedback is that the middle class could consolidate for the BJP.

The reasons are many – the city’s failing infrastructure, air pollution and state of the Yamuna, the potholed roads, poor drinking water quality, and garbage lying all around the roads and the streets. The BJP this time has actively reached out to RWAs, market associations, and traders to get them fully on board. The middle class in Delhi feels that the AAP has only worked for the poor, and ignored the middle-class.

The 8th Pay Commission announcement is another positive for the BJP, as a large number of government employees are based in Delhi as voters. Another bonus could be the budget announcement that those earning till Rs 12.75 lakh will not need to pay any income tax. The BJP is already advertising this in the last lap of Delhi polls.

This seems to be one reason why the fight is tough in the New Delhi seat of Arvind Kejriwal as well as the Kalkaji seat of Atishi. Overall, this is an advantage for the BJP.

FREEBIES

A make-or-break factor in these elections is the freebies, over which a war has been on. From 2020, when the BJP termed the AAP’s freebies as “revadis" and it back-fired as people thought the BJP would end free power and free water facilities, Modi’s party has changed its strategy this time and said no free schemes will be stopped if it comes to power.

Additionally, the BJP has promised Rs 2,500 per month for women to counter Kejriwal’s new promise of Rs 2,100 per month for women after these elections. With such promises, the BJP is trying to split the AAP’s core vote base in the jhuggis of Delhi and also get the women voters to some measure back from the AAP.

In the last lap of the elections, the BJP has focussed on informing people about its promises and has spoken of its record of delivering on them in states like Haryana and Maharashtra. On the other hand, the BJP has pointed out how the AAP has failed to deliver the women’s scheme in Punjab.

But Kejriwal has also put in big efforts to ensure his USP is not lost among voters. He is going to houses and telling them how they have saved at least Rs 25,000 per month due to his freebies so far, and stand to save even more at Rs 35,000 a month. He is also telling voters that the BJP would discontinue all benefits if it comes to power, and is underlining how it was his government that pioneered and continued free electricity and water. Whichever of the two parties wins, Delhi is staring at a Rs 22,000-crore subsidy bill every year, at nearly 30% of the total budget, if all the promised freebies are rolled out. On the ground, many people do not seem to care for that and are looking to vote for the party that can give them maximum freebies.

So again, it is a neck-and-neck battle between the AAP and the BJP on this count.

CM FACE

In the end, any election also boils down to the face and the AAP seems to have an advantage here with Kejriwal the unquestioned CM face for the party. He has clearly said he will replace Atishi as the CM if AAP wins.

On the ground, though the BJP does not have a clear CM face, some do feel that the sheen of Kejriwal is gone given the various corruption scams and the Sheeshmahal controversy hurting his image of ‘simple living and high thinking’. But for hardcore AAP voters, corruption is a non-issue as they say “ghotale toh sabhi karte hain" and say Kejriwal was wrongly jailed and hence has public sympathy.

The BJP’s biggest face, PM Narendra Modi, has made a fervent appeal to Delhi’s voters to give his party a chance after a long gap of 27 years. He has promised a double-engine government to put an end to the constant bickering between the Kejriwal government and the Centre, and promised to put Delhi on the fast path of development.